A new poll puts Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson ahead in Michigan’s 2026 governor’s race, but nearly half the state’s voters haven’t picked a candidate yet.

The survey, released Monday by the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research at Michigan State University, tested a hypothetical three-way general election matchup between Benson, Republican John James and independent Mike Duggan. Among respondents who expressed a preference, Benson drew 30%, James drew 19% and Duggan drew 16%. The rest of the electorate, a plurality by any measure, is still undecided.

The poll was conducted March 2 through 24, 2026, drawing on 1,000 Michigan adult residents through an online survey as part of Michigan State’s annual State of the State Survey.

What the numbers actually mean

Benson’s lead isn’t as commanding as the raw percentages suggest. Corwin Smidt, interim director of the institute, was direct about why she’s out front. “With no major opposition to her nomination candidacy, Jocelyn Benson’s slight lead is largely reflective of her being more in control of her party’s base,” Smidt said. “On the Republican side, John James is facing some well-financed and active competitors for the nomination.”

That Republican primary competition matters enormously here. Because so many GOP voters are still sorting out their nominee, Smidt told Michigan Advance that the polling “suggests the race would be essentially a tie if James was a presumptive nominee.” Benson, by contrast, faces only Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson, who has consistently trailed her in both polling and fundraising.

Think of it this way. Benson’s lead reflects consolidation, not dominance.

Duggan’s geography problem

Duggan’s numbers tell a complicated story about the limits of Detroit’s political gravity. His support in the metro Detroit area, covering Washtenaw, Monroe, Lapeer, Lenawee, Livingston and St. Clair counties, sits between 26% and 28%. Drive north or west, and the numbers collapse. Central and northern Michigan put him at around 15%. Western Michigan? Around 9%.

That’s a steep falloff for someone trying to win a statewide race. Michigan’s 109 legislative districts spread across a state where outstate voters carry real weight in November, and Duggan’s brand simply doesn’t travel the way a former two-term Detroit mayor might hope.

Smidt’s assessment was blunt. “Duggan’s strength is understandably concentrated in the Detroit metropolitan area, but Duggan’s support is much lower outside those counties,” he said.

The crossover appeal that makes Duggan interesting is also what complicates his coalition. He’s “pulling nearly equal levels of support from both groups of partisans,” Smidt said, and he actually draws slightly more support from Trump voters, at 22%, than from Harris voters, at 19%. For a lifelong Democrat who spent over a decade running Detroit, that’s an unusual partisan profile. It signals that he can peel off voters from both sides, but it doesn’t guarantee he can build a majority from the middle.

Detroit itself is a wildcard

Inside the city of Detroit, almost 41% of residents are undecided. James pulls less than 3% support from Detroit in this poll, which means the contest within city limits is effectively between Benson and Duggan. Whoever consolidates Detroit’s Democratic base by November will have a meaningful advantage in Wayne County turnout numbers.

For Benson, that’s an opportunity. She already leads the Democratic primary by a wide margin and carries strong name recognition from two statewide runs for secretary of state. For Duggan, Detroit is both his home court and his floor. Losing the city badly would undercut the entire rationale for his independent candidacy.

What’s next

The Republican primary remains the most unsettled variable in this race. James is the best-known GOP candidate nationally, having run for U.S. Senate twice, but his primary competitors are funded and active, according to the institute’s analysis. A drawn-out Republican primary fight could leave James weakened heading into a general election where, if the poll’s logic holds, he’d start in a statistical tie with Benson.

The next major markers to watch are Q2 fundraising disclosures and whether any of the GOP primary challengers consolidate support before the August primary. Benson’s campaign has already filed financial disclosures with the Michigan Bureau of Elections, and that fundraising gap between her and Swanson has been consistent across the cycle so far.